The Pentagon has warned our policy makers that Mexico is in danger of collapse and become “a failed state” due to inability of the Mexican Government to control the drug cartels that have taken over the country.
More than 8,000 people have been killed in Mexico’s drug wars over the past two years. A study by the US Joint Forces Command, a US military planning group, warns that the Mexican state may “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse” because of “sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels… Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.” (International Herald Tribune, Jan. 9 from Reuters)
Joint Forces Command‘s “Joint Operating Environment [JOE 2008]” report places Mexico on the same level of threat as Pakistan: “In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico. The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels…
It forecasted that by 2030, the U.S. population will grow by more than 50 million people, many of whom will come from continued immigration from Mexico. According to the report, “at least 15% of the population of every state will be Hispanic in origin, in some states reaching upwards of 50%.” The report said that how well these immigrants assimilate will play a major role in America’s prospects.
Michael Hayden, the retiring head of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, also expressed concern over the situation in Mexico, telling reporters that it could rank alongside Iran, and possibly be even worse than Iraq, in terms of the problems to be dealt with by incoming President Barack Obama.
The U.S. Justice Department pointed to Mexican gangs as the “biggest organized crime threat to the United States,” with National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley saying that the increasing violence south of the border threatens Mexico’s “very democracy.”